WEEKLY SUMMARY WEEK 4
Ukrainian sunflower prices rose by $23/ton. Exporters in Ukraine quote rapeseed at $523-538.5/ton EXW
News from the markets in Bulgaria
• During the period 12-19 January, the prices of the main agricultural commodities in the country remained stable. Wheat continued to trade in a narrow range, with the price remaining unchanged for the period. Bread wheat remains at 186 €/t, while feed wheat is still quoted at 182 €/t. Corn saw a slight decrease in price by 2 € to 182 €/t, equalizing its price with feed wheat. Barley recorded the same correction, with its final price now at 195 €/t.
• The main decrease was registered in the oilseeds segment. Sunflower, delivered to the ports, increased in price by 5 € to 540 €/t (almost 1%), while shellers are already quoted at 535 €/t, with an increase of 7 € for the period.
Oil mills also reported an increase in prices, with Northern Bulgaria seeing an increase of €5 to €527/t, and Southern Bulgaria seeing an increase of €7 to €525/t. The rise in the oil complex was led by rapeseed, which is now quoted at €470/t, compared to €461/t at the beginning of last week – an increase of nearly 2%.
European Market Highlights
Euronext grain futures maintained a moderate tone on Monday, despite a slight appreciation of the euro and the absence of the SWOT. Demand from key importers gave a positive signal to the wheat segment, with preliminary data showing a total of 1.5 million tonnes of wheat being bought in the Saudi Arabian and Algerian markets.
Despite absorbing a significant amount of the abundant supply, the new purchases highlight the strong competition from wheat of Black Sea and Argentine origin (leaders in the last two markets), which continue to gain ground over Western European wheat. MATIF wheat closed in green territory at €191.25/t (+€0.50), while maize ended the session strongly at €193.75/t (+€2), reaching a four-month high. The price spread between the two crops remains a function of traders’ preferences, especially in feed demand.
• The European Union has published a new report on the development of the EU agricultural sector until 2035, according to which production growth will slow down. The main factors are the frequent adverse weather conditions, the transition to sustainable agriculture and technological changes. Production in the EU will cover the demand in the interior of the bloc, while feed consumption will decrease due to the shrinking livestock farming. The use of raw materials for biofuels will remain limited by regulations. The EU is expected to maintain import independence in the cereal segment, but higher production in traditional export destinations will slow exports and increase competition, putting pressure on the market for soft wheat. Yields of oilseed crops – soybeans, sunflowers and rapeseed – will increase moderately, supported by sustainable technologies and practices.
• After the positive movement of the Euronext rapeseed last week, in which the May contract recorded a growth of 1.1% (+0.9% for the February contract), prices still remain below the current resistance level of 470 €/t (466.50 €/t).
However, the spread between the two contracts is slowly narrowing. ICE canola did not record a significant price movement, despite the weekly growth of 3% and the newly reached trade agreement between China and Canada. The first purchase from China for 60 thousand tons is already a fact, which can be interpreted as a signal of careful monitoring of the market by Chinese importers and potential interest in the raw material.
Highlights from markets in America
• Brazilian agriculture is expected to maintain its solid performance in the current season. According to the latest report from Conab, the total production of 16 main crops is forecast at 353.1 million tons (+987 thousand tons compared to the previous season) on an area of 83.9 million hectares (+2.1 million hectares). Soybeans, the main export crop, are expected to reach 176.1 million tons (+2.7%), with the planted area increasing to 48.7 million hectares (+2.8%). However, the forecast for corn is slightly down to 138.9 million tons (-1.5%), despite an increase in planted area to 22.8 million hectares, as adverse weather conditions in the southern regions – including hail, drought and temperature fluctuations – limit yields.
• Sorghum production continues to grow, reaching 6.7 million tonnes (up from 6.1 million tonnes previously), with 1.8 million hectares (1.6 million hectares) of sown area, while wheat production, the main winter crop, is forecast at 7.9 million tonnes. This is on par with last year’s result, despite a 20% decline in sown area, driven by favourable weather conditions. The data shows that Brazil remains a key player in the global soybean and corn market, with varying climatic factors and changes in sown area determining export potential and competitiveness in the coming season.
• Oats acreage in Canada is likely to contract this spring as the market remains under strong pressure from the record 2025/26 harvest. Production is estimated at 3.92 million tonnes (up from 3.36 million tonnes a year earlier), with the increase coming mainly from higher yields rather than a large increase in area. The AAFC estimates an area of around 1.21 million hectares for 2025/26 compared to 1.17 million hectares the previous season, with an improved average yield of 3.74 tonnes/ha from 3.38 tonnes/ha. A decline in area of around 3% is being discussed (and some estimates go as high as 12%), while ending stocks could swell to 700,000-750,000 tonnes.
Prices remain low: old crop is already trading below CAD 3/bushel, and offers for new are CAD 3.25-3.50/bushel, which according to local producers means that the sowing of oats will be “at a loss”.
Highlights from markets in the Black Sea region
• On the export rapeseed market last week, prices remained stable, with the commodity trading in the range of $540-545/t CPT in Ukrainian ports. Market participants followed the development of negotiations between China and Canada, with preliminary data indicating agreements reached, including a reduction in the tariff on Canadian canola to 15%. On the domestic Ukrainian rapeseed market, offers increased significantly, mainly due to the weakening of the hryvnia against the dollar. The most significant increase was recorded in offers from exporters, with levels reaching $523-548.5/t EXW.
• Sunflower prices in Ukraine have also increased by an average of 1,000 UAH/t ($23) over the past week, supported by the rise in the price of sunflower oil and the devaluation of the Ukrainian currency. At the beginning of the previous week, quotes ranged between 26,500-28,000 UAH/t (613-648) and 27,800-28,800 UAH/t CPT ($643-666/t) for standard indicators, with buyers willing to pay even higher prices for higher oil content (51-52%).
Analysts note that the price increase stimulates supply, but there is a risk of a decline in oil prices and, accordingly, sunflower, precisely because of the attacks on port infrastructure and the growing energy deficit.
• On the grain market in Kazakhstan last week, prices remained stable amid moderate export interest and limited supply. According to APK-Inform, logistical constraints and a shortage of wagons continue to limit supplies, despite buyer interest. On export markets, indicative wheat prices were formed on a DAP-Saryagash basis as follows: class 3 (12.5%) – $225-230/t, class 4 (11%) – $215-220/t, Feed – $205-210/t. Feed barley prices ranged between $220-225/t FOB-Aktau and $200-210/t DAP-Saryagash, while domestic wheat demand remained moderate.