Highlights from the markets in Europe

• The December contract in Paris closed the main session on Wednesday down 0.8% at €226.75. Pressure stems from two directions: increasing supply via the Baltic Sea and the prospect of a resumption of exports from the Sea of ​​Azov. For exporters in Bulgaria, Romania, and the rest of Europe, this implies intensified competition—precisely at a time when restrictions in the Black Sea had provided them with an opportunity to attract buyers.
• Russian wheat is being actively offered via the Baltic Sea. According to a German trader, offers for 90,000 tonnes (12.5% ​​protein) and another 110,000 tonnes (11.5% protein)—for loading in November and December—emerged in a single day. Tunisia’s purchase of 100,000 tonnes of wheat raised hopes for new sales from France, yet failed to bolster European price quotes.
• News regarding the authorization of shipments from the Sea of ​​Azov became public late in the main MATIF session, allowing the market time for an initial reaction. However, this reassessment may continue today and in the coming days, particularly if significant export volumes are confirmed as actually shipped. Ultimately, the scale and pace of these shipments will determine whether there are grounds for a more substantial market correction. • The March corn contract lost 3.75 euros, falling to 259.50 euros/tonne, pressured by the decline in wheat prices and expectations of a potential resumption in Ukrainian exports. For rapeseed, high oil prices proved the dominant factor: the February contract gained 1.75 euros/tonne following volatile fluctuations within an 8-euro range. For the time being, the granting of permits for Russian vessels does not, in itself, imply a restoration of Ukrainian shipments.

Highlights from the American markets

• The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, and Chairman Kevin Warsh provided no guidance regarding future decisions.
The absence of a signal for a further rate hike was interpreted as a slight softening in tone, which limited support for the dollar. After hitting a low of $1.1124 on Tuesday, the euro rose to around $1.1154 yesterday, before retreating to $1.1134 this morning. Attention is now shifting to today’s ECB meeting, as expectations regarding interest rates in the US and the Eurozone influence the relative attractiveness of both currencies. The euro also remains under pressure due to concerns over French debt; doubts regarding Paris’s ability to rein in its budget deficit are prompting investors to demand higher yields on its bonds. This increases the cost of financing for France and weighs on confidence in the Eurozone.
• Wheat in Chicago was once again hit hardest by news concerning Russian supplies. The granting of clearance for vessels to depart the Sea of ​​Azov pushed the December contract back toward the psychological threshold of $6 per bushel. The market is on track for its ninth consecutive week of decline, having lost nearly 24% over the past two months. Today’s USDA data on weekly export sales will reveal whether lower prices are attracting more buyers to US wheat, which could provide some support to price levels. • Corn and soybeans also felt the pressure from the decline in wheat prices, though they ended with different outcomes.
Corn managed to recover and closed with a slight gain, supported by increased ethanol production and a drop in weekly ethanol stocks in the US. As for soybeans, the sale of 120,000 tonnes to an unknown destination—announced by the USDA—was not enough to halt another decline.

Black Sea Market Highlights

• According to seven Reuters sources, permits have been issued for the first time since the route was closed on July 10, allowing grain-laden vessels to depart the Sea of ​​Azov. Passage through the Kerch Strait will be permitted until November 15, with two sources noting the provision of a naval escort across the Black Sea. While this offers an opportunity to release held-up cargoes, it does not yet guarantee a sustained recovery in exports.
• The closure of the Kerch Strait was one of the primary drivers behind the rise in wheat prices during the summer. Now, the prospect of movement in the opposite direction is putting downward pressure on quotes. The next key indicator will be the actual number of vessels that pass through, the nature of their cargo, and whether the permitted timeframe will be extended. According to Kpler, the Azov route can handle over 1.5 million tonnes of Russian wheat per month during peak periods. The scale of this route is further underscored by the export of 12.4 million tonnes of grain via the Azov-Don basin during the first nine months of the 2025/26 season. What if Ukraine were to also begin exporting from there?
• The Port of Murmansk and Demetra Holding have announced the loading of an initial batch of 3,400 tonnes; according to sources, a total of approximately 28,000 tonnes of wheat is expected to be loaded for shipment to Casablanca (Morocco). For now, volumes are limited, but this route highlights Russia’s efforts to expand its export capabilities beyond its southern ports and the Baltic Sea.
• The authorizations for the Sea of ​​Azov coincide with a local ceasefire in the Kherson region and preparations for trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi. This fuels hopes for a revival in trade; however, a comprehensive safety agreement for the Black Sea is still lacking. Regarding prices, the crucial factor will be whether these diplomatic signals translate into regular shipments that effectively increase supply on the international market.