Highlights from the markets in Europe

MATIF wheat found strong support on Thursday, rising €3/t to €239/t, even hitting a one-week high of €240.25/t during the session. In addition to the technical recovery from Tuesday’s six-week low, the market was supported by the sharp weakening of the euro, which returned to its lowest levels against the dollar since May 2025.

Additional impetus came from the return of Saudi Arabia, which is looking for 535 thousand tons of wheat. The previous auction for the same volume was canceled due to excessively high prices, but since then MATIF has cooled noticeably (-6% for the whole of September). After this week Pakistan also made a purchase at nearly $10/ton lower than its previous auction, there is a first signal that the correction in futures is starting to reach the physical market. This increases the chances that this time the Saudi auction will end with a real purchase, with wheat from Eastern Europe, the Baltics and Romania expected to be among the most competitive offers.

Corn followed wheat higher, while rapeseed remained more volatile under pressure from weaker palm oil, canola and soybean markets, but still managed to close in the green. New crop contracts remain well supported by the current outlook in Western Europe.

Highlights from the American markets

US corn has tried to stabilize after Wednesday’s strong pressure. The December contract barely held above $5/bushel, its lowest level in about a month and a half, which prompted some buying after the massive fund sell-off. For now, however, this looks more like a technical recovery than a real turnaround, especially with the still weak export backdrop. Weekly sales reached just 536,000 tons.

Wheat performed slightly better, but growth remained limited by disappointing export sales of 289.3 thousand tons. Soybeans continued to be under pressure, with a record US harvest combined with signs of weaker domestic demand and the disappointing outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting. August processing was reported at 209.6 million bushels (~5.7 million tons), below market expectations, although weekly export sales remained relatively solid at just over 1 million tons.

StoneX made more significant adjustments to the US crop, lowering its corn production forecast by about 2.3 million tons to 409.3 million tons, after reducing the expected average yield to 11.43 t/ha. The opposite trend is observed for soybeans, with an increase in yield to 3.64 t/ha and production by nearly 2.8 million tons to 126.5 million tons. In Brazil, the soybean estimate was reduced by only 140 thousand tons to 183.36 million tons, mainly due to a smaller expected area in the state of Tocantins, while El Niño remains the main risk for the northern regions.

Black Sea Market Highlights

Estonia banned the transit of Russian grain from October 1, and Latvia is due to consider further restrictions on October 3. This is important because in the 2026/27 season, Russia could load around 1.8-3.8 million tons through its own Baltic ports, and another 2.2-2.9 million tons through Latvian ports.

Latvia is the weak point in this scheme. Last season, the country took about 55% of the total Baltic wheat transit, and currently the price difference between loading via Ust-Luga and Riga is only $3-5/t. This means that even a relatively small increase in the price of rail transit could make this route unprofitable and remove part of Russian wheat from the international market.

According to AgResource estimates, with more serious restrictions in Latvia, about 2.4-3.3 million tons of wheat could be at risk by the end of the 2026/27 season. The market effect comes from the fact that Russia currently needs the Baltic precisely because the southern route is difficult. If the northern corridor is also restricted, the pressure on exports will increase even more, which would support European wheat and improve its positions at international auctions.