WEEKLY SUMMARY WEEK 3
Despite slowing down in recent weeks, autumn sowing in Bulgaria continues ahead of the usual pace for the previous few seasons, and in the latest report from the Ministry of Agriculture, wheat sowing was completed on 1036ha, against 888ha a week ago and 658ha a year ago.
The deepening drought is also the reason for the slowdown in the sowing rate of barley and canola, as in the week to November 3, barley areas increased by 14 kha to 100.5 kha, against 65 kha a year ago. By 2 kha for the week to 110.6 kha, the sown areas with rapeseed also increased, which, unlike grains, lags behind last year’s 120 kha.
After harvesting 912 kha (99.9% according to plan) with sunflower, 2052 kmt were harvested with an average yield of 225 kg/dk. The harvest of corn for grain advanced by 2.5% to 97.7%, with 2443 kmt harvested from 512.5 ha with an average yield of 477 kg/dk. Compared to 2021, the average yield of corn drops by 18% and of sunflower by 6%.
The November USDA report offered no major, let alone any, surprises, with world wheat production up 1 to 783Mmt (780) and stocks unchanged at 268Mmt (276). The EU is one of the few to have a further decline in harvest, also modest, by 0.5 to 134.3Mmt (138). Imports and consumption rose by 0.5Mt each and offset, exports were unchanged at 35Mt (32) and stocks fell in line with the harvest to 9.5Mt (13.4). World barley production is unchanged at 149Mmt (146), EU harvest increased by 0.2 to 51.3Mmt (52).
The USDA left global corn balances virtually unchanged with the crop at 1,169Mmt (1,217) and stocks at 301Mmt (308). For another month and almost entirely at the expense of Hungary, the USDA lowered the EU corn harvest by 1.4 to 54.8 Mmt (71). Imports are unchanged at 20Mmt (20), stocks also at 7.4Mmt (10), compensated by lower consumption together with the harvest. Focusing on Hungary, the USDA notes the weakest harvest there since 1968, at 441 kg/dk, the average yield there is 42% below the average for the last 5 years
With a record crop in Australia, global canola production rose another 1Mmt to 84.8Mmt (74.8), but with increased processing, stocks were almost unchanged at 7.2Mmt (4.4). Interestingly, the estimate for the long-harvested crop in the EU also continues to rise, with a new 0.35Mmt added to 19.5Mt (17.2). World sunflower production was down 0.7 to 51.3Mt, with 0.23Mt of the decline coming from the EU, where the crop fell to 9.48Mt. The production of vegetable oils and meal in the World has decreased minimally.
Fully as expected, the USDA left US wheat balance sheets virtually unchanged with harvest at 44.9Mmt (44.8) and exports at 21.1Mmt (21.8). With slightly increased consumption, stocks fell by 0.2 to 15.5Mmt (18.2). Focusing on Australia and Argentina, the USDA raised the wheat harvest in the former by 1.5 to 34.5Mmt, but lowered the latter by 2 to 15.5Mmt. In Australia, it will be the second-biggest crop after last year’s record, and with 42% of acreage in drought, Argentina is expecting its worst since 2015. Canada is unchanged at 35Mmt (22.3).
The USDA raised the average yield and hence U.S. corn production above expectations by 0.9 to 353.8Mmt (383). Exports were unchanged at 54.6Mmt (62.8), and with increased consumption, stocks rose by only 0.2 to 30Mmt (35). Compared to last year, however, stocks of wheat and corn in the US appear to be significantly down. Corn balances in Brazil and Argentina were unchanged with production at 126Mmt (116) and 55Mt (51.5) and exports at 47Mmt (44.5) and 41Mt (36.5), respectively. Due to drought and extremely slow sowing in Argentina, however, the forecast for the latter is questionable. Imports to China are unchanged at 18Mmt (22).
USDA lowers global soybean crop by 0.5 to 390.5Mmt (356), but raises stocks by 1.5 to 102Mmt (95). The decline came entirely from Argentina, where, unlike corn, drought was clearly factored in, with the crop down 1.5 to 49.5Mmt. Brazil is unchanged at a record 152Mmt (127). The old vintages are also unchanged in both – the numbers in parentheses. With an increased average yield, the US soybean crop rose more than expected by 0.9 to 118.3Mt (121.5), exports were unchanged at 55.7Mt (58.7), stocks increased by 0.5 to 6Mt (7.5). Imports to China were unchanged at 98Mmt (91.6).
Black Sea Region
The USDA left Russia’s wheat balances unchanged with a harvest of 91Mmt (75.2), exports at 42Mmt (33) and ending stocks at 15.4Mmt (11.1) – without exception all indicators are a record for the country. The balances of wheat in Ukraine are also unchanged with a harvest of 20.5Mmt (33), export 11Mmt (18.9) and stocks 4.7Mmt (4.8). With good summer rainfall, the reason for good yields of spring wheat in Russia as well, the harvest in Kazakhstan increased by 1Mmt to 14Mmt (11.8). By this amount, the export has also increased to 9 Mtt (8).
Corn balances in Ukraine were flat with harvest at 31.5Mt (42.1), exports at 15.5Mt (27) and stocks at 9.9Mt (4.5). Russia’s corn balances are also unchanged with a harvest of 15Mt (15.2), exports 4Mt (4) and stocks 0.8Mt (0.9). The same applies to barley production, with the harvest in Russia remaining at 21Mmt (17.5) and in Ukraine at 6.4Mmt (9.9)
USDA cut Ukraine’s sunflower crop by 0.4 to 10.1Mt (17.5), with the drop coming entirely from average yield, already expected at 2.2t/ha, down 11% from last year. Harvested areas are unchanged at 4.6Mt, which is 35% less than last year. The harvest in Russia is unchanged at 17Mt (15.6), in Turkey also at 1.9Mt (1.75), but for both the production is a record. Seed exports from Russia were unchanged at 0.8Mmt (0.28), as well as from Ukraine at 1.95Mmt (1.64).