Highlights from the markets in Europe

After reaching a one-month high of €249.75/t on Thursday, wheat in Paris ended Friday’s session down €2.50 to €243.75/t. The recovery of the euro and the decline in Chicago prices have limited the support from increased export demand. The accumulated long positions of speculative funds also increase the risk of additional sales if the upward momentum weakens again. The unsuccessful attempt to overcome the psychological limit of €250/t shows that despite the logistical risks in the Black Sea, buyers have so far failed to impose permanently higher price levels.

Weather is once again a concern for European producers. Wheat and barley sowing in France is clearly lagging behind, with persistent moisture shortages continuing to be a hindrance, and the expected rainfall over the coming week will be closely watched. If sufficient and consistent rainfall is provided, it could ease sowing conditions and ease concerns about the 2027 harvest. The accumulated soil moisture deficit is significant, but the forecast for the next week is quite encouraging.

The rapeseed market is showing an unusually wide divergence between the near and far futures on MATIR. November futures ended Friday’s session at €501.75/t, while February futures reached €552/t, a difference of over €50/t. As the November contract nears its expiration at the end of October, its movement is increasingly influenced by technical positioning and short-term logistical factors, including logistical difficulties on the Rhine. The weakness of the near contract should be automatically taken as a signal of a fundamental decline in rapeseed prices. The significantly higher prices for February and May indicate that the pressure on November delivery is not being carried over to the same extent into the coming months.

Highlights from the American markets

SWOT wheat fell 1.4% to $6.60/bushel on Friday, while corn lost 0.8% to $4.74/bushel. Favorable weather in the US Midwest is facilitating the harvest of corn and soybeans, while improving soil moisture in the plains creates better conditions for sowing winter wheat. Additional pressure comes from speculative funds. The latest CFTC report shows that large speculators have reduced their net long positions in corn by more than 94 thousand contracts in a week. The retreat of funds is associated with both more favorable crop prospects and fears of a recession in the US, which encourage investors to limit their exposure to commodities.

The USDA announced a new spot sale of 558,000 tons of U.S. soybeans to China, as well as an additional 236,000 tons to undisclosed destinations. However, November futures fell 0.1% to $12.61/bushel. The reaction suggests that at least some of the recovery in Chinese purchases is already priced in, while pressure from the U.S. crop continues to dominate.

Meanwhile, Chinese customs data showed a sharp increase in corn imports in September to 430,000 tonnes, or 663.6% above last year’s level. However, the growth comes from an extremely low base in September 2025. For the first nine months of 2026, China imported 2.11 million tonnes of corn, compared to just 930,000 tonnes in the same period in 2025 and 12.83 million tonnes in 2024. This shows a recovery in imports compared to last year, but volumes remain far below levels from two years ago.

Black Sea Market Highlights

According to European Commission data published on 12 October, around 90% of Ukrainian exports of grain, oilseeds and related products in August passed through European solidarity corridors, compared to around 10% via the Black Sea. The contrast is particularly telling, as for the entire period from May 2022, Black Sea ports accounted for around 60% of the total 256 million tonnes exported. The sharp re-routing of flows in August shows how strongly maritime restrictions can change Ukrainian export logistics. If this trend persists, the load on rail and land routes to the EU will continue to grow, along with the risk of higher transport costs.

Market estimates suggest Russian wheat exports in October could reach around 3 million tonnes, thanks to increased use of rail deliveries to Baltic ports. This would be a recovery from a weak September but remains well below the usual post-harvest 4.5 to 5 million tonnes per month. The key question will be how far alternative routes can compensate for the Black Sea restrictions without transport costs negating the price advantage. For now, the expected recovery is enough to dampen some of the optimism of Western European exporters, but not to eliminate logistical uncertainty.

A ship carrying 36,000 tonnes of French wheat is expected to be loaded for Oman later this month from the port of La Palice. Such a deal illustrates how the difficulties in Black Sea logistics can shift demand towards Western European origins, despite the greater transport distances. However, this does not mean a lasting change in trade flows. If Russia manages to increase exports and seaborne supplies from the region stabilize, price competition from the Black Sea could quickly intensify again.